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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and recent underperformers rising together. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still