The Villans Defy Gravity Again as Victorious Streak Continues at Stamford Bridge

This surely should not continue. It makes no sense for it to persist. And yet, it does.

A Historic Victory Against the Odds

The Claret and Blue army arrived at the weekend's Premier League clash at Chelsea looking to equal a historic record of 11 consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in 1897 and 1914. For the opening hour, achieving it seemed highly unlikely, as Chelsea dominated proceedings, took the lead, and could have added to their advantage. However, Chelsea have shown vulnerability when ahead, especially at home, while Villa have cultivated a baffling habit of securing away victories from losing positions.

First, the striker equalised, the ball cannoning in off his leg and the post after his first effort was saved by the goalkeeper. Subsequently, he secured the decisive goal with a precise header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. Watkins might believe a bit of luck was overdue, and there's no question the equalizing goal involved a significant element of luck. Currently, however, Lady Luck is smiling on Villa.

The Numbers Of an Implausible Run

The last nine of these eleven straight wins have been by a single goal. They have managed a clean sheet in only one of those games. Their expected goals (xG) have been superior in only six of those fixtures, and in a couple of those, the advantage was 0.2 or less. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This formula should not, yet pundits have been saying that for weeks, and Villa keep on winning. The central question is whether their results will eventually match their performances or if their performances can rise to match the points haul.

This should not be sustainable, but everyone has been saying that for a while and Villa keep on winning.

A Core Characteristic: Resilience

Coming from behind is not merely a feature of this season. Over the past 3 seasons, no side has won more points from losing positions than Villa's fifty-four; 18 of those have been secured this season, fifty percent more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have scored nine goals. Two key observations can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.

  • Firstly, they possess a profound self-belief that means no game ever feels beyond them. This is, to an extent, self-perpetuating: the more they come from behind, the more they believe they can do it once more.
  • Secondly, Emery has proven exceptionally adept at changing games with his substitutions.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea won the expected goals 2.1 to 1.4, Villa were dominant from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple change. Watkins came on for Malen, who had found it difficult with limited service. Suddenly, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's runs in behind caused problems. Amadou Onana and Jadon Sancho also entered, bolstering the midfield and providing the width they had eschewed earlier.

The Blues registered 10 shots to Villa's zero before the substitutions; afterwards, Villa created eleven opportunities to Chelsea's 4. By the final whistle, Villa were in control and could have won by a greater margin. Once again, opposing manager Maresca struggled to respond as the game turned against him; the sense remains that he is more proficient at implementing a tactical plan with preparation time than adapting on the fly.

Individual Brilliance

Villa have cultivated a happy habit of players producing pieces of sensational quality to turn games. Rogers has scored crucial goals at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him shifting the ball onto his favored foot and curling a finish home has become a seasonal theme. It was Malen who transformed the game from the bench at Leeds. The striker changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of players such as Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. At present, it's not always the entire team playing flawlessly, but sufficient players within it stepping up to secure the victories.

What Comes Next?

Will they be able to keep going? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season nears its halfway stage, they have to be viewed as part of the championship conversation, certainly more so than club world champions Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. The upcoming away fixture at Arsenal will be a significant examination of that claim. Villa defeated Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only had better the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this season.

Arsenal have since put together their own sequence of narrow victories, winning three in a row without ever being entirely convincing. The upcoming clash will be a challenge for both sides – and if Villa win a 12th game in a row, it would become almost impossible to dismiss their championship pedigree.

Beth Little
Beth Little

A creative director with over a decade of experience in print media and digital design, passionate about helping brands tell their stories.