A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
